Advertising 2.0

Crossing the Chasm

While reviewing Advertising 2.0 topics, I will frequently refer to concepts presented in Geoffrey Moore's Crossing the Chasm. A great book that has certainly influenced me and many others.

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The primary concepts I'll be referring to evolve around the bell curve that represents technology adoption by population. So, imagine a simple bell curve with a line down the middle. 50% of the population sits on either side of the center. Now lets draw two more lines in the curve, each at one standard deviation (left and right) from the center. One standard deviation is about 1/2 way from the center to the end on each side. And lets draw two more lines at two standard deviations. Now you should be visualizing a 6 part bell curve where the largest portions are near the middle.

The names of these groups - from left to right - are 1, "Inventors" 2. "Early Adaptors" 3. "Early Majority" 4. "Late Majority" 5. and 6. are non-adaptors. Now, if we look at how technology is created and accepted, its starts on the far left with the "Inventors" who sell their technology to the "Early Adaptors." Most technology life spans live and die in these two areas. What makes a hit technology is the ability for that technology to "cross the chasm" between the Early Adaptors and the Early Majority.

Within each market segment, there are needs and desires of that group which differ from the needs and desires of any other group.

Inventors see a problem and take unrelated technology to solve it. Truly the "way out there" people.

Early Adaptors are tinker-ers. Within their area of adaption, they want to be able to use the invented technology and will put up with Beta testing (in fact, most want to be able to beta test). This group sees the new technology as an opportunity and will tinker with what is broken by applying related technology solutions.

Early Majority see technology as productive. "A better mouse trap." This group will not put up with broken elements. They do not want to tinker, they want a working solution that will make their life better.

Late Majority sees new technology as a last resort. "I have to do this because I'll be fired otherwise." This group does not buy technology, technology is forced on them.

Quick case and point, Microsoft based PCs vs. Apple PCs. In the 1980s, MS Dos was successfully targeted and won over the Early Adaptors - IT Departments and 'geeks' for lack of a better word. Apple targeted the Early Majority, but there was little to no market - simplified to Schools and Graphic Arts. The Early Adaptors ridiculed Macs because they could not tinker, Macs were hermetically sealed computers. Now, we see Macs making a return as computers have crossed the chasm and people seek productivity solutions that "just work." I'll stop here on the MS vs. Mac example before going too far.

BTW, you can't leapfrog. You can try, but unless its nuclear fusion, good luck. Most technology that has crossed the chasm is riding the coat tails of others within the Early Adaptor segment. The Bleeding Edge is usually not the financial winner.